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\newcommand{\StarnoteFS}{\Figtext{\footnotesize Specifications estimated using OLS including district of birth and year of birth fixed effects and controls for gender. Exposure to reform is an indicator for being born after reform in a treated district. Standard errors clustered at the district of birth-level in parentheses. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.}}

\newcommand{\StarnoteFStiny}{\Figtext{\scriptsize Specifications estimated using OLS including district of birth and year of birth fixed effects and controls for gender. Exposure to reform is an indicator for being born after reform in a treated district. Standard errors clustered at the district of birth-level in parentheses. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.}}

\newcommand{\StarnoteFSPlacebo}{\Figtext{\footnotesize Specifications estimated using OLS including district of birth and year of birth fixed effects. Exposure to reform is an indicator for being born after reform in a treated district. Standard errors clustered at the district of birth-level in parentheses. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.}}

\newcommand{\StarnoteIV}{\Figtext{\footnotesize $\beta^{OLS}$ estimated using Equation (1); $\beta^{IV}$ estimated using Equation (3). All specifications include district of birth and year of birth fixed effects and controls for gender. Standard errors clustered at the district of birth-level in parentheses; bootstrapped $p$-values in square brackets. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.}}

\newcommand{\StarnoteCompliers}{\Figtext{\footnotesize Table computes covariate means for baseline NPS sample (column 1) and compliers (column 2). Column (3) is column (2) divided by column (1).}}


\begin{document}

\tableofcontents

\clearpage

\section{Main paper}

\subsection{Figures}

\begin{figure}[!htpb]
\begin{center}
\caption{Income, registration, and inequality}
     \centering
     \begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
         \centering
         \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{"Figures/Figure 1a.pdf"}
		\caption{Income and registration levels}
     \end{subfigure}
     \hspace{0.5cm}
     \begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
         \centering
         \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{"Figures/Figure 1b.pdf"}
		\caption{Registration levels and inequality}
     \end{subfigure}
     \end{center}
     \footnotesize \textit{Sources:} World Bank, UNICEF. \textit{Registration} is the share of citizens possessing birth certificates. \textit{Rich-poor registration difference} is the percentage point difference in the registration rate of highest income quintile citizens relative to lowest quintile.
\end{figure}

\clearpage

\subsection{Tables}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering \small
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Effect of reform on registration}
\estmain{"Tables/Table 1.tex"}{10}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize DV: respondent has a birth certificate. Sample restricted to cohorts born within ten years of reform in treated or control districts.} \StarnoteFS
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\clearpage

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering \small
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Effects on access to the state}
\estmain{"Tables/Table 2.tex"}{10}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize DVs are all indicators. (1) has any primary education; (2) has any secondary education; (3) has any university education; (4) in a household accessing National Health Insurance Fund; (5) in a household accessing private pension; (6) in a household accessing state pension. Sample restricted to cohorts born within ten years of reform in treated or control districts.}
\StarnoteIV
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\clearpage

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering \small
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Effects on exposure to taxation}
\estmain{"Tables/Table 3.tex"}{10}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize DVs are all indicators. (1) in a household which has paid any tax in the last year; (2) in a household which paid fees in the last year; (3) in a household which paid local taxes in the last year; (4) in a household which paid taxes to the central government in the last year. Sample restricted to cohorts born within ten years of reform in treated or control districts.}
\StarnoteIV
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\clearpage

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\begin{landscape}
\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering \small
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Heterogeneity in compliance with reforms}
\estmain{"Tables/Table 4.tex"}{10}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize DV: respondent has a birth certificate. Panel I examines heterogeneity using local measures of taxation; Panel II using local measures of public goods. Sample restricted to cohorts born within ten years of reform in treated or control districts. District-level measures of tax levels from Jensen and Mkama (1968); tax incidence from Lee (1965); local public goods from administrative data. Regressions control for interaction of \textit{Reform} with standardized district income per capita and population density. All specifications estimated using OLS including district of birth and year of birth fixed effects and control for gender. SEs clustered at the district of birth-level in parentheses. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. }
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}
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\clearpage
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\clearpage

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\input{"Tables/Table 5.tex"}
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\clearpage

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\section{Appendix}

\subsection{Figures}

\begin{figure}[!htbp]
\begin{center}
\caption{Exclusion from public resources based on economic versus social status}
\includegraphics[scale=0.8]{"Figures/Figure A1.pdf"}
\end{center}
\footnotesize \textit{Source:} V-DEM v.12 dataset. Figure plots the average country-level extent of exclusion from public resources based on socioeconomic group status against exclusion from public resources based on social group status. Variables are standardized and averaged across the period 1960-2015. ``ROW'' refers to rest-of-world; ``SSA'' refers to sub-Saharan Africa.
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htbp]
\begin{center}
\caption{Income, registration, and inequality (supplementary)}
     \begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
         \centering
         \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{"Figures/Figure A2a.pdf"}
		\caption{Income and registration rates}
     \end{subfigure}
     \hfill
     \begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
         \centering
         \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{"Figures/Figure A2b.pdf"}
		\caption{Income and registration inequality}
     \end{subfigure}
     \centering
     \begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
         \centering
         \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{"Figures/Figure A2c.pdf"}
		\caption{Hanson and Sigman (2021) measure of state capacity and registration rates}
     \end{subfigure}
	\hfill
     \begin{subfigure}[b]{0.45\textwidth}
         \centering
         \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{"Figures/Figure A2d.pdf"}
		\caption{Hanson and Sigman (2021) measure of state capacity and registration inequality}
     \end{subfigure} \\
     \end{center}
     \footnotesize \textit{Sources:} World Bank, UNICEF, Hanson and Sigman (2021). ``ROW'' refers to rest-of-world; ``SSA'' refers to sub-Saharan Africa.
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htbp]
\begin{center}
\caption{Measure of Tanzania's state capacity over time}
\includegraphics[scale=0.8]{"Figures/Figure A3.pdf"}
\end{center}
\footnotesize Figure plots the Hanson and Sigman (2021) measure of state capacity at the annual level (standardized within year). Tanzania gains independence in 1961. ``ROW'' refers to rest-of-world; ``SSA'' refers to sub-Saharan Africa.
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htbp]
\begin{center}
\caption{Introduction of civil registries across sub-Saharan Africa}
\includegraphics[scale=0.8]{"Figures/Figure A4.pdf"}
\end{center}
\footnotesize Figure plots the share of countries in sub-Saharan Africa with civil registration authorities over time. \\ \textit{Source:} World Bank ID4D initiative.  
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htbp]
\begin{center}
\caption{Spatial distribution of treated and control districts}
\includegraphics[scale=0.8]{"Figures/Figure A5.pdf"}
\end{center}
\footnotesize Figure plots the spatial distribution of treated (purple) and control (green) districts used in the baseline analysis. District boundaries as defined in 2012 Population and Housing Census.
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
\caption{Trends in registration rates}
     \centering
     \begin{subfigure}[b]{0.475\textwidth}
         \centering
         \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{"Figures/Figure A6a.pdf"}
		\caption{Census}
     \end{subfigure}
     \hfill
     \begin{subfigure}[b]{0.475\textwidth}
         \centering
         \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{"Figures/Figure A6b.pdf"}
		\caption{National Panel Survey}
     \end{subfigure}
     \end{center}
\footnotesize Figures display the average share of registered individuals across treated and control districts over time. Panel (a) uses the baseline Census sample; Panel (b) uses the baseline National Panel Survey sample.
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htpb]
\begin{center}
\caption{Estimates of first stage while excluding districts}
\includegraphics[scale=1]{"Figures/Figure A7.pdf"}
\end{center}
\footnotesize Figure estimates the first stage coefficient ($\beta^{FS}$) using Equation (2) while excluding a given treated district. Vertical gray line provides the overall first stage coefficient from column 1 of Table 1. 90\% and 95\% confidence intervals plotted. 
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htpb]
\begin{center}
\caption{Trends in outcome variables}
	\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.9\textwidth}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.85]{"Figures/Figure A8a.pdf"}
		\caption{Trends in education access}
	\end{subfigure}
	\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.9\textwidth}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.85]{"Figures/Figure A8b.pdf"}
		\caption{Trends in social security access}
	\end{subfigure}
	\begin{subfigure}[b]{0.9\textwidth}
		\centering
		\includegraphics[scale=0.85]{"Figures/Figure A8c.pdf"}
		\caption{Trends in tax payment}
	\end{subfigure}
\end{center}
\footnotesize Figure displays the average value of variables measuring access to education (Panel A, Table 2); access to social security (Panel B, Table 2); and tax payment (Table 3) across treated and control districts over time using the baseline census and NPS samples.
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htpb]
\begin{center}
\caption{Effects on education access by grade}
\includegraphics[scale=1]{"Figures/Figure A9.pdf"}
\end{center}
\footnotesize Figure estimates treatment effects ($\beta^{IV}$) on having completed a given grade of education using Equation (3). Primary education runs from P1 to P7; Secondary education runs from S1 to S4 (`Ordinary level') or to S6 (`Advanced level'). 90\% and 95\% confidence intervals plotted.
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htbp]
\begin{center}
\caption{Expansion of compulsory registration across districts over time}
\includegraphics[scale=0.85]{"Figures/Figure A10.pdf"}
\end{center}
\footnotesize Figure displays the cumulative share of districts targeted by a compulsory registration order by year. \\
\textit{Source}: Tanzania National Archives.
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[!htbp]
\begin{center}
\caption{Relevant legislation during reform period}
\includegraphics[scale=0.9]{"Figures/Figure A11.pdf"}
\end{center}
\footnotesize Figure displays the share of relevant legislation being passed in a given year. \\
\textit{Source}: Southern African Legal Information Institute.
\end{figure}

\clearpage

\subsection{Tables}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Descriptive statistics (Census)}
\estmain{"Tables/Table A1.tex"}{10}{rrrrrrrrrr}
\Figtext{\footnotesize Data source is the 2012 National Population and Housing Census. Sample restricted to cohorts born within ten years of reform in either treated or control districts.}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Descriptive statistics (NPS)}
\estmain{"Tables/Table A2.tex"}{10}{rrrrrrrrrr}
\Figtext{\footnotesize Data source is National Panel Survey (2010, 2014). Sample restricted to cohorts born within ten years of reform in either treated or control districts.}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\setcounter{table}{3}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{First stage (robustness)}\scriptsize
\estmain{"Tables/Table A4.tex"}{10}{c}
\Figtext{\scriptsize DV: respondent has a birth certificate. Panel A: sample restricted to cohorts born within 5 year of reform, or no restriction. Panel B: excluding individuals born in reform year, or those who report their age rounded to five years. Panel C: interacting vector of district-level controls with post-reform year indicator, or linearly adding additional individual-level controls. Panel D: redefining the set of control districts to comprise other districts classified as urban in 1967 census (Table A5), or all other districts in the country. Panel E: using district of birth fixed effects based on modern administrative units, or clustering at pre-reform district $\times$ cohort level; Panel F: replicating the baseline first stage using the NPS sample while varying included cohorts.}
\StarnoteFStiny
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\setcounter{table}{5}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{First stage (Alternative estimation)} \footnotesize
\estmain{"Tables/Table A6.tex"}{10}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize Outcome variable is whether respondent has a birth certificate. Panel A: estimated using a local linear regression in the set of treated districts. Coefficient represents the change in registration probability among cohorts just after, versus just before, the reform. Panel B: Equation (2) estimated using household-level fixed effects.}
\Figtext{\footnotesize * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Standard errors clustered at the district of birth-level in parentheses.}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Placebo outcomes} \footnotesize
\estmain{"Tables/Table A7.tex"}{12}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize Table uses individual-level characteristics as dependent variables in Equation (1). DVs: (1) individual is male; (2) individual is Tanzanian; (3) individual's father is alive; (4) individual's mother is alive.}
\StarnoteFSPlacebo
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Effects on literacy}
\estmain{"Tables/Table A8.tex"}{12}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize DVs are all indicators. (1) individual is literate in any language; (2) individual is literate in Kiswahili; (3) individual is literate in English.}
\StarnoteIV
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Effects on access to social security}
\estmain{"Tables/Table A9.tex"}{12}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize DVs are all indicators. (1) individual in a household with access to any social security fund; (2) individual in a household with access to National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF); (3) individual in a household with access to National Social Security Fund (NSSF); (4) individual in a household with access to Parastatal Pension Fund (PPF); (5) individual in a household with access to Public Service Pension Fund (PSPF); (6) individual in a household with access to Government Employees Provident Fund (GEPF); (7) individual in a household with access to Local Authorities Pension Fund (LAPF); (8) individual in a household with access to any other social security fund.}
\StarnoteIV
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}

\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Effects on exposure to taxation (all cohorts)}
\estmain{"Tables/Table A10.tex"}{10}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize DVs are all indicators. (1) individual in a household which has paid any tax in the last year; (2) individual in a household which has paid any fees to the government in the last year; (3) individual in a household which has paid local taxes in the last year; (4) individual in a household which has paid taxes to the central government in the last year. Sample restricted to all adults born in either treated or control districts.}
\StarnoteIV
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}


\begin{table}[!htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Comparison of registration reform effects}
\estmain{"Tables/Table A11.tex"}{10}{c}
\Figtext{\footnotesize Table estimates the effects of the '66 reform, '80s reforms, and '09 reform on registration as discussed in Appendix A.2. Column (1) estimates using the complete census sample and tests for differences between the effects of later reforms compared to '66. Columns (2) to (4) separately estimate effects of each reform, restricting each sample to cohorts born close to reform year. All specifications are estimated using OLS and include district of birth and year of birth fixed effects and control for gender. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Standard errors clustered at the district of birth-level in parentheses.}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}






\end{document}